flyhighguys94

The Current Situation of the Secondary Market

302 posts in this topic

I am not saying that those $10 lowball offers on eBay aren’t ridiculous. They are. But so are many of the asking prices of the sellers.

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A while back I finally recognized that pretty much all hobbies are money sinks, and this one is no exception.  The slow expense trickle of shipping and patches.  The fact that putting a kit on a jersey does not increase a jersey's value by what you spent on the kit. (hey, just like home improvement!)  The resale penalty for having to be the first to own a new jersey design.  (hey, just like buying a new car!)  And I don't even get into specialty auctions...

After I realized this, I was a lot happier with my collection.  Every purchase decision now includes the question, "are you ok with not getting your money back on this?"  Sure, I still want to minimize my losses, but I was miserable when that was my primary concern. 

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11 minutes ago, furiousd said:

A while back I finally recognized that pretty much all hobbies are money sinks, and this one is no exception.  The slow expense trickle of shipping and patches.  The fact that putting a kit on a jersey does not increase a jersey's value by what you spent on the kit. (hey, just like home improvement!)  The resale penalty for having to be the first to own a new jersey design.  (hey, just like buying a new car!)  And I don't even get into specialty auctions...

After I realized this, I was a lot happier with my collection.  Every purchase decision now includes the question, "are you ok with not getting your money back on this?"  Sure, I still want to minimize my losses, but I was miserable when that was my primary concern. 

Bingo. You summed it up perfectly.

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3 hours ago, lhg39 said:

I am not saying that those $10 lowball offers on eBay aren’t ridiculous. They are. But so are many of the asking prices of the sellers.

That's true, and sometimes sellers are just taking a shot. I once offered $50 on a blank Trenton Devils ECHL jersey that was listed for $200. It was probably worth more than $50, but it was also not worth $200.

My offer was accepted nearly immediately. Of course, $50 was closer to FMV than $10 would have been. 

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10 hours ago, lhg39 said:

Too many people treat their jerseys as if they are investments. Aside from certain game worns, this is not the case, Even if they were investments, not all appreciate or even hold their value. Too many want to get back what they paid or make a profit. There is no logical reason that a used retail jersey should be worth more, or even as much, as it was when it was new; unless it is a particularly rare style. Same goes for game worn/issued jerseys of common players. My opinion is that too many here have unrealistic expectations.

Good post.

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7 hours ago, furiousd said:

A while back I finally recognized that pretty much all hobbies are money sinks, and this one is no exception.  The slow expense trickle of shipping and patches.  The fact that putting a kit on a jersey does not increase a jersey's value by what you spent on the kit. (hey, just like home improvement!)  The resale penalty for having to be the first to own a new jersey design.  (hey, just like buying a new car!)  And I don't even get into specialty auctions...

After I realized this, I was a lot happier with my collection.  Every purchase decision now includes the question, "are you ok with not getting your money back on this?"  Sure, I still want to minimize my losses, but I was miserable when that was my primary concern. 

And this^^^

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Agreed with everything posted. Hobby has definitely grown since I got into it a few years ago but, even with the new collectors everyone is looking for a steal cuz once upon a time they saw a similar jersey go for less than your “outrageous” asking price  

Only thing I will add is that sometimes it’s just a matter of timing. I’ve had jerseys listed for months with no action and then someone will BIN at asking price without even making an offer. But overall the market has become flooded for retail authentics. Don’t know the gamer market 

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Not that Facebook is home to reasonable behavior on the whole but there are signs there that the market is awful. I'm seeing a lot of good stuff stagnate and a few collectors trying to hit the eject button on the hobby. Normally I don't put too much stock into the "I'm out of the hobby" posts but there have been a handful of "I'm scaling back my collection and just looking to really focus" posts. 

Part of it is experiential, too many jerks in too many groups. But part of it is what we're observing here. Too many jerseys and too many of us who are taking losses because of that excessive supply. 

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30 minutes ago, Dr_Puck said:

Not that Facebook is home to reasonable behavior on the whole but there are signs there that the market is awful. I'm seeing a lot of good stuff stagnate and a few collectors trying to hit the eject button on the hobby. Normally I don't put too much stock into the "I'm out of the hobby" posts but there have been a handful of "I'm scaling back my collection and just looking to really focus" posts. 

Part of it is experiential, too many jerks in too many groups. But part of it is what we're observing here. Too many jerseys and too many of us who are taking losses because of that excessive supply. 

Been seeing a lot of that lately too.

About a month or two ago someone had a Dallas Stars Nieuwendyk for under $1K I believe and that still sat for a while.  Couldn't believe it.

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I'm hoping that target holds for me with a certain Joel Otto jersey in the next month...

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Am I the only one who can't move anything? I have GIs, authentics, gamers. Some higher-end players and the scrubs. Just dead. Since late August, I have sold exactly two jerseys.  

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No it's slow for all of us trying to sell I'd imagine.  I've been trying to move a handful of jerseys for a while now... granted they're not the most popular jerseys, but they aren't scrubs either (authentics).  Today was my first sale in a couple months and I ended up accepting half the offer price after including shipping for a buyer from the Czech Republic. It's low ball season on ebay for sure, if you're lucky enough to even get an offer.

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Nah it is very slow for me too.  I just got an offer of $400 on an item I have listed at $1399.99 at the moment.  That's where things are in a nutshell these days.

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My god nothing is selling right now.  I am having trouble getting $100 for a properly customized authentic jersey right now.  I'm afraid to start anything at $.99 because I feel like biding would stop so low I would end up selling a $200+ jersey for less then $50.  What is going on right now?  Maybe that is why I am not finding a whole lot for sale right now because no one wants to take the same hit everyone is taking right now.

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52 minutes ago, spudrock512 said:

My god nothing is selling right now.  I am having trouble getting $100 for a properly customized authentic jersey right now.  I'm afraid to start anything at $.99 because I feel like biding would stop so low I would end up selling a $200+ jersey for less then $50.  What is going on right now?  Maybe that is why I am not finding a whole lot for sale right now because no one wants to take the same hit everyone is taking right now.

I have two properly customized Edge jerseys up for $99 each right now. One is of a Hall of Famer. Crickets.

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My dry streak ended in a nice way this week with three gamers sold. However, my customized Edges aren't even getting watchers let alone sales.

Excluding trades, I have purchased one measly $25 replica since early September and my next purchase won't be until the end of December. I can't spend when I can't sell. 

Edited by Dr_Puck
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On 11/3/2017 at 9:33 AM, spudrock512 said:

My god nothing is selling right now.  I am having trouble getting $100 for a properly customized authentic jersey right now.  I'm afraid to start anything at $.99 because I feel like biding would stop so low I would end up selling a $200+ jersey for less then $50.  What is going on right now?  Maybe that is why I am not finding a whole lot for sale right now because no one wants to take the same hit everyone is taking right now.

I don't know if it's been mentioned (haven't scrolled through the entire thread), but I think it has a lot to do with just how many fake jerseys are out there. While people like us can spot a fake 20 miles away, the average fan either can't or simply doesn't care. Either way, there are a lot of average fans out there who really think a "stitched jersey with fight strap" for $50 is the real deal and they stick to their guns when given every shred of proof otherwise. (I dealt with countless people when I worked in licensed sports retail who just thought I was trying to get a sale when I told them the truth about why "authentic jerseys" are so cheap online.) Thus, when they go looking on eBay for an authentic jersey, the thought of spending even $100 is blasphemous to them. 

 

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For what it’s worth, I think the authentic market is struggling because of the gamer market.  With the large amount of game worn jerseys on the market from a large variety of sources, people can spend as little as $200/$300USD on a jersey worn by the guy they see on TV.  Sheer volume of game worns available has pushed the prices down a lot.  If buyers go that route they get an authentic jersey, 100% correct customisation, authentic patch if applicable and get to watch one of their teams guys play in it.  If all that can be bought for such a little amount, then are buyers going to spend the same cash or more on effectively a shop bought item?  I don’t think so, hence the low prices.

I appreciate this viewpoint doesn’t hold for top players as values are higher, but would a jersey worn by a 3rd or 4th liner appeal more than an authentic with the same top guys name on the back everyone else in the rink has? It does to me, so it must to other people too.  

The Canucks were selling all the leftover game worn jerseys from last season for $200CAD, of which most of course included the 100th patch. Considering it usually runs way more than that just to get an authentic blank, I think that’s where the slow secondary market in authentics stems from.

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Quite frankly I think the gamer market has little to nothing to do with the authentic market and vice versa.  While there is some overlap, authentic collectors are a bit of a different breed than gamer collectors and one has little influence over the other.

I think the fakes certainly have at least a little bit to do with it.  I also think the transition from Reebok to Adidas has made it harder for everyone as the average fan who is not a collector typically wants the latest and greatest.

In the gamer market, the biggest issue are the collectors themselves.  This is more than any dealer or team out there.

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10 minutes ago, Devilsguy said:

Quite frankly I think the gamer market has little to nothing to do with the authentic market and vice versa.  While there is some overlap, authentic collectors are a bit of a different breed than gamer collectors and one has little influence over the other.

I think the fakes certainly have at least a little bit to do with it.  I also think the transition from Reebok to Adidas has made it harder for everyone as the average fan who is not a collector typically wants the latest and greatest.

In the gamer market, the biggest issue are the collectors themselves.  This is more than any dealer or team out there.

I can see how fakes would affect the authentic market, but not the gamer market. I can't imagine anyone out there is trying to decide between a game work jersey or a Chinese knockoff. Unless they thought those were the only options. 

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2 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I can see how fakes would affect the authentic market, but not the gamer market. I can't imagine anyone out there is trying to decide between a game work jersey or a Chinese knockoff. Unless they thought those were the only options. 

Yeah sorry I wasn't clear and I meant the authentic market.

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I can't even move any of my authentics I tried listing here for $99 each. I'm gonna take the plunge and list everything tonight for $0.99 on eBay. I'll run a 7 day auction and take whatever I can get. I just wanna move on. The market has destroyed this hobby for me. I've been collecting for almost 11 years now. All good things must come to an end I guess. I've also noticed a ton of game worn collectors posting their good-byes on the facebook group recently. 

 

 

Shameless plug, check my eBay page if you want some killer deals in the next week haha

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 I keep having the same feeling, then I go through everything to narrow it down to just the ones that I “really need”. 

Then I find reasons that I really need them all

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23 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

 I keep having the same feeling, then I go through everything to narrow it down to just the ones that I “really need”. 

Then I find reasons that I really need them all

 

I never worried about it because if I bought something and then changed my mind (which happened all the time) I could move it for what I paid. Then it was moving a jersey for a $30-70 loss and now it's losing $100-200. I forgot about buying something at retail pricing, not even worth it anymore. This hobby was always self sustained and that probably made it 20x more fun lol. 

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The farewell posts on Facebook are indicative of a few things, the shttiy state of the market being one of them. We've talked about this before, too many people simply play the "what's in it for me" angle. I'd rather walk away from a decent jersey than deal with someone who is going to not be realistic ... or very interested in helping out a fellow collector.  

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